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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1221
Research in Bus and Rail Transit Operations
Transportation Research Board
National Research Council
Washington, DC 1989
Impact on Transit Patronage of
Cessation or Inauguration of
Rail Service
Edson L Tennyson
Many theorists believe that transit service mode has little
influence on consumer choice between automobile and transit travel. Others
believe that they have noted a modal effect in which rail transit attracts
higher ridership than does bus when other factors are about equal. Given
environmental concerns and the large investment needed for guided transit, a
better understanding of this issue is essential, especially for congested areas.
A consideration of the history of automobile and transit travel in the United
States can be helpful in comprehending the nature of the problem. After World
War II, availability of vehicles, fuel, and tires spurred growth of both private
automobile use and use of buses for transit. Analyses of the effects of both
this growth and the improvements in rail systems that were added during the same
period reveal that transit mode does indeed make a significant difference in the
level of use of a transit facility. This factor must be included in future
alternative analysis studies if reliable patronage determinations are to be
made.
The purpose of this paper is to
analyze what difference (if any) rail transit makes in attracting the public to
use public transportation. Many metropolitan areas in North America suffer
intensifying traffic congestion with no cure in sight, particularly in the
suburban growth areas (1). At the same time, air pollution laws and
problems require a radical reduction in emissions, with no assurance that much
improvement can be accomplished. Diesel transit buses will be among the first
vehicles to be affected by the Clean Air Act in 1991, but the necessary
technology has not yet been perfected. Urban air is still not sufficiently
healthful.
The expanded use of public transit can
sharply reduce the use of automobiles and resulting pollution. The consumption
of only 700 gallons of motor fuel per household in the District of Columbia and
New York State, where there are significant rail transit services in addition to
ubiquitous bus services, is evidence of this. States with the least transit
service consume nearly three times as much motor fuel per household as do states
in which rail transit predominates
(2).
Most traffic- and trip-generation studies
recognize no difference in trip generation attributable to the choice between
rail and bus service, although recent work by R. H. Pratt and the Metropolitan
Washington Council of Governments (3) demonstrates that recognition of
the difference has begun. In estimating commuter rail patronage, Pratt found it
necessary to increase rail estimates 43 percent over calculations for similar
bus service to calibrate models accurately for suburban transit use (4).
Earlier, the Delaware Valley Regional
Planning Commission found that regional models calibrated for 99 percent
confidence level grossly overstated local bus ridership and equally understated
commuter rail ridership to obtain correct regional totals (5). There is
thus considerable anecdotal evidence that transit submode choice can make a
substantial difference in the actual attraction of motorists to transit, with
widespread attendant benefits.
It is true that travel time, fare,
frequency of service, population, density, and distance are all prime
determinants of travel and transit use, but automobile ownership and personal
income may not be consistent factors for estimating rail transit use for people
with a choice. Most bus riders are heavily transit dependent, whereas subway
passengers are less so. Railroad commuters are highly dependent on automobiles
and high incomes to access and use rail service, and they do use it where it is
of high quality (6). The same models do not appear to work accurately for
the different transit submodes, but too few studies recognize the difference.
In this analysis, the historical secular
trend in the transit industry from 1947-1948 to 1975 (when the statistical base
was shifted to unlinked trips) will be examined first, to seek evidence of any
differential in the rate of public use of public transit by submode. During this
period, transit use fell from a post-World War II high to a low second choice
for those who could not avoid it.
Next, case-specific changes from rail to
bus service will be analyzed for cases in which data are available, with the aim
of gaining a better understanding of the impact of these changes. Finally,
changes from bus to rail service will be analyzed similarly. The results of
these analyses will speak for themselves.
PAST TRENDS
After World War II, during
1947-1975, most transit systems were modernized to take advantage of less
capital-intensive technology, expanding freeway Systems, and suburban growth by
substituting diesel buses for most electric railway services and some commuter
railroad services. Electric railway vehicles in service declined from 36,377 in
1945 to 10,712 in 1975 (7). Commuter railroad coach requirements declined
from an estimated 7,335 in 1945 to 4,438 (actual) in 1976. (An estimate had to
be made for 1945 because railroads at that time did not uniformly segregate
commuter from intercity requirements, as they now do.)
Passenger-miles traveled on shrinking
commuter railroad systems declined 7 percent, from 5.6 billion in 1945 to 5.2
billion in 1975. During this same period, suburban bus systems lost 82 percent
of their patronage, dropping from 895 million passengers in 1945 to an estimated
161 million in 1975. This loss was despite rapid growth in suburban population
and bus service offered, as well as the abandonment of 7 of the 21 commuter rail
systems (8).
Metropolitan bus services inherited many
of the transit riders left by the receding electric railways, but the number of
buses in service declined from 53,381 in 1945 to 51,514 in 1975. In Table I and
Figure 1, these trends are analyzed in 5-year increments to determine their
characteristics. During this 30-year period, transit patronage fell 69 percent,
forcing a 38 percent reduction in service. The decline in patronage was 31
percent greater than the curtailment of service, sharply reducing transit
productivity in inflationary times-the worst of both worlds.
TABLE 1 CHANGE IN
TRANSIT TRAVEL, 1945-1975
|
|
|
Rapid Transit |
|
Light Rail |
|
Commuter Rail |
|
Urban Bus |
|
Suburban Bus |
|
Total |
|
|
Amount |
Change |
Amount |
Change |
Amount |
Change |
Amount |
Change |
Amount |
Change |
Amount |
Change |
Year |
|
(%) |
|
(%) |
|
(%) |
|
(%) |
|
(%) |
|
(%) |
Millions of
Vehicle Miles in Service |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1945 |
458.4 |
- |
939.8 |
- |
222 |
- |
1,855.6 |
- |
(153) |
|
3,475.8 |
|
1955 |
382.8 |
-16 |
1783 |
-81 |
184 |
+2 |
1,886.4 |
-7 |
(142) |
-7 |
2,631.5 |
-24 |
1965 |
395.3 |
+3 |
41.6 |
-77 |
159 |
-14 |
1,571.3 |
-17 |
(124) |
-13 |
2,191.1 |
-17 |
1975 |
423.1 |
+7 |
23.8 |
-43 |
161 |
+1 |
1,541.3 |
-2 |
67 |
-46 |
2,216.2 |
+1 |
Millions of
Passengers Carried |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1945 |
2,698 |
- |
9,426 |
- |
323 |
- |
11,130 |
- |
(895) |
- |
23,577 |
|
1955 |
1,870 |
-31 |
1,207 |
-87< |
258 |
-20 |
8,452 |
-24 |
(534) |
-40 |
11,787 |
-50 |
1965 |
1,858 |
-1 |
276 |
-77 |
228 |
-12 |
6,119 |
-28 |
(334) |
-37 |
8,510 |
-28 |
1975 |
1,683 |
-9 |
124 |
-55 |
260 |
+14 |
5,162 |
-16 |
161 |
-52 |
7,390 |
-13 |
Passengers Lost (in
Addition to Service Cuts)
1955 |
|
-15 |
|
-6 |
|
-22 |
|
-17 |
|
-33 |
|
-26 |
1965 |
|
-4 |
|
0 |
|
-2 |
|
-11 |
|
-24 |
|
-11 |
1975 |
|
-16 |
|
-12 |
|
+13 |
|
-14 |
|
-6 |
|
-14 |
Over 30 yrs |
|
8 (cut) |
|
97 (cut) |
|
27 (cut) |
|
17 (cut) |
|
56 (cut) |
|
36 (cut) |
|
|
38 (loss) |
|
99 (loss) |
|
20 (loss) |
|
54 (loss) |
|
82 (loss) |
|
69 (loss) |
Net |
|
30 (loss) |
|
2 (loss) |
|
+ 7 (gain) |
|
37 (loss) |
|
26 (loss) |
|
33 (loss) |
Light Rail
Plus Urban Bus
Millions of
Millions
Year Miles in Service of Passengers
1945
2,795.4
20,556
1975
1,565.1
5,286
Cuts/losses 1,230.3
15,270
Amount
44
74
The various transit modes had different
responses within the general trend. Light rail (or street car) service lost 98.7
percent of its passengers, primarily because of the 97.5 percent reduction in
service when buses were substituted for rail cars. From a reciprocal point of
view, 2.5 percent of the rail service remained, carrying 1.3 percent of the
passengers, a loss of 48 percent over 30 years. Bus service, which inherited
most of the rail ridership, lost 54 percent of its 1945 riders, despite the rail
riders added to bus over that period. Considering that new buses on improved
highways often replaced worn-out streetcars on bad track, the overall result is
disconcerting and may help to focus on the transit's loss of market share.
In contrast to these bus rider losses (75
percent, if street car and bus passengers are grouped together), rail rapid
transit lost only 30 percent of its riders during the same period. Nearly half
of these were lost around 1952, when the financial community stopped Saturday
work. (Saturday had been the highest ridership day of the week.) Commuter rail
lost only 20 percent despite the loss of one third of its lines and the loss of
much Saturday travel. It lost only 7 percent of its passenger-miles as the
suburbs grew farther out and a lower-income population filled the inner suburbs.
These data are much too generalized to
allow anyone to draw sound conclusions, but they do suggest that bus transit may
not be able to hold or sustain the same market share as rail transit, if other
factors are equal or similar. Few would suggest that service in which a new
motor coach replaces a worn-out street car would cost more, run less frequently,
or be slower. A more case-specific study of this phenomenon may be required
because it appears that there is a difference in ridership (Table 2). |
|
TABLE 2 CHANGES IN TRANSIT SYSTEM
USAGE, 1950-1980
|
1980 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
WW II |
Current |
|
|
|
|
|
Popula- |
|
Change |
Current |
Change |
Current |
Change |
Rail |
Rail |
Old |
New |
Change |
|
|
tion |
Area |
(%) |
Passengers |
(%) |
Vehicles |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
Habit |
Habit |
(%) |
Cornments |
|
6.78 |
Chicago |
+25 |
484.9 |
-56 |
4,808 |
-21 |
90 |
65 |
261 |
72 |
-72 |
|
|
3.81 |
Detroit |
+14 |
52.0 |
-88 |
976 |
-66 |
41 |
0 |
208 |
14 |
-93 |
All bus |
|
3.00 |
Toronto |
+173 |
450.0 |
+46 |
2,609 |
+100 |
80 |
51 |
280 |
150 |
-46 |
50% rail |
|
2.68 |
Washington |
+144 |
123.0 |
-67 |
2,050 |
-1 |
45 |
0 |
301 |
46 |
-85 |
All bus |
|
2.76 |
Washington |
+151 |
250.0 |
-32 |
2,284 |
+11 |
45 |
55 |
301 |
91 |
-70 |
50% rail |
|
1.85 |
Saint Louis |
+15 |
37.7 |
-85 |
773 |
-52 |
58 |
0 |
155 |
20 |
-87 |
All bus |
|
1.81 |
Pittsburgh |
+2 |
68.8 |
-69 |
1,064 |
-26 |
82 |
6 |
155 |
38 |
-75 |
Some LRT |
|
1.75 |
Cleveland |
+19 |
75.7 |
-69 |
828 |
-42 |
76 |
20 |
191 |
34 |
-82 |
|
|
1.61 |
Atlanta I |
+92 |
76.4 |
+ 12 |
900 |
+ 102 |
78 |
0 |
122 |
47 |
-61 |
All bus |
|
1.61 |
Atlanta II |
+92 |
100.9 |
+47 |
990 |
+ 122 |
78 |
51 |
122 |
63 |
-48 |
New rail |
|
1.56 |
Dallas |
+188 |
28.6 |
-69 |
723 |
+50 |
58 |
0 |
169 |
18 |
-89 |
All bus |
|
0.72 |
Ottawa |
+241 |
78.4 |
+185 |
793 |
+372 |
83 |
0 |
126 |
109 |
-13 |
All bus |
|
0.67 |
Oklahoma C. |
+168 |
3.8 |
-93 |
95 |
-55 |
34 |
0 |
175 |
6 |
-97 |
All bus |
Summary of 26 areas |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Median > 50% rail |
|
+73 |
236.0 |
-44 |
2,446 |
-5 |
76 |
59 |
229 |
63 |
-71 |
|
Median 40-49% rail |
|
+95 |
218.2 |
-41 |
3,339 |
+37 |
63 |
41 |
193 |
62 |
-68 |
Two cases |
Median ~25% rail |
|
*27 |
47.2 |
-70 |
697 |
-30 |
61 |
18 |
166 |
34 |
-80 |
|
No rail remaining |
|
+109 |
34.0 |
-75 |
748 |
-11 |
65 |
0 |
164 |
21 |
-87 |
|
NOTES: Population and
annual ridership in millions. Percentage of rail service is based on percentage
of passenger-miles travelled. Sources: UMTA Section 15 Reports, Ma's
Transportation Directory. Kenfield-Davis, Chicago.
CASE HISTORIES
Bus and Oil Affiliates
Transit systems in Baltimore, Chicago's North Shore suburbs,
Kansas City, Los Angeles, Milwaukee's suburbs, the Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St.
Paul), New Jersey, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, and St. Louis were all
affiliated with bus manufacturing or oil marketing companies for the specific
purpose of replacing rail service with buses. In 1948 these properties operated
7,574 rail cars and 7,142 buses serving 1.9 billion revenue passengers per year.
By 1986, these figures had declined to 1,700 rail cars and 11,875 buses serving
only 793 million revenue passengers (estimated from unlinked trips and
passenger revenue), a decline of 60 percent. Productivity per vehicle declined
55 percent. If the huge population growth in Los Angeles is excluded, the other
systems declined 68 percent in revenue passengers.
In Baltimore, a 5-cent fare was promised
when the new management began to replace the rail cars with buses, but instead
fares increased, just as they did elsewhere. In the North Shore suburbs of
Chicago, commuters fought to save their rail lines and opposed the use of buses.
When the trains stopped, no buses took their place.
In Kansas City, the president of the
Association of Commerce warned that the conversion of the important Country Club
rail line would harm downtown business, and indeed it did. Later, Seymour Kashin,
Assistant General Manager of the Transit Authority, reported that the Troost
Avenue rail line, extended in 1946, carried more passengers than the entire bus
system now does.
In Los Angeles, the last interurban rail
line carried 5.2 million annual passengers in 1961 before it was replaced by a
Freeway Flyer and a local service bus line. These bus lines carried 4.1 million
passengers the first year, down 21 percent, and only 3.8 million passengers in
the second year, down 26 percent, despite the more frequent service. This rail
line is now being restored and is expected to carry 10 to 12 million passengers
annually. The population growth in the area accounts for some of the expected
increase.
In Minneapolis-St. Paul, the top managers
involved in the rail-to-bus conversion were sent to prison as ridership fell.
New Jersey suffered one of the sharpest declines in annual rides per
capita-except for its one remaining light rail line, which has lost no
significant number of passengers over the past 35 years, despite the sharp
population decline in Newark where it operates. In Bergen County, New Jersey,
which has an exclusive busway into New York City, transit has a lower modal
split than in any other part of the commuting area. The split is even lower
there than it is where the commuter rail lines end at the New Jersey waterfront,
requiring a transfer at $1 to cross the river (Figure 2).
|
|
In the western Milwaukee suburbs, when
new buses replaced the old rapid transit rail line in 1951, ridership dropped 54
percent over a 2-yr span. Bus running time was 10 minutes longer than rail at
that time, suggesting a loss of 21-22 percent of the riders. The balance of the
loss, however, must be attributed to the mode (9). At the Waukesha rapid transit
station, when buses were loading at the rail platform ahead of the rail car or
train, only 26 percent of the passengers chose the bus, despite the 20 percent
lower fare. It is probable that the lower fare offset the longer time, leaving
the low modal share to passenger preference
(10).
After rail service was eliminated in
Oklahoma City and its environs, transit use fell 97 percent on a per capita
basis. In St. Louis, with all-bus service, only 13 percent of the riding habit
remains. St. Louis has now contracted to restore rail transit on a Metrolink
from the airport through downtown to East St. Louis to recover some of the
transit market share.
At one time, St. Louis was a leader in
the transit industry. In their 1959 Annual Report, St. Louis Public Service Co.
management wrote that our company proposes to acquire the usable assets of
certain other suburban bus operations and to purchase 125 additional luxury
buses, 75 for street car conversion and 50 for revitalization of the county
system. We would air-condition another 100 buses in our present fleet.
The report quoted the company's consultant:
St. Louis Public Service has made an outstanding contribution to the industry
and to the St. Louis area by trying out new methods of attempting to attract
patronage. At the present time, the St. Louis area is enjoying the largest fleet
of air-conditioned buses in the country. The Company has experimented with
shorter headways in an effort to attract patronage. These and other promotions
place this Company very high on the list of progressive operating managements.
Despite these comments, patronage was down 44 percent from 1947 as
the rail service was cut back in favor of buses on freeways. The company sold
its remaining rail cars to San Francisco, where ridership has held up more
effectively. By 1986, transit in St. Louis was at a very low ebb (11).
The losses would be even greater if the interstate electric railway had been
included in the data.
In Philadelphia, which has trunk subway
lines, bus substitution was limited to surface rail lines, and even these retain
some rail operation. One rail-to-bus substitution was conducted as a trial.
Ridership on route 42 dropped off markedly, and now, with an exclusive busway in
Center City, it is only 33 percent of rail volume. During the trial, the
Schuylkill River bridge was rebuilt without tracks, so rail service could not be
restored even though the test was a failure (12). This was not a failure
of coordination, but a highway engineer’s strategy, abetted by the new owners of
the transit system.
Between 1954 and 1956, the new management
of the Philadelphia Transit Company purchased 1,000 new diesel buses to replace
some old gasoline buses and many rail cars. During the installation of these new
buses, passenger revenue fell 14 percent, as shown in Figure 3. Overall, from
1948 to 1988, transit travel in Philadelphia declined 63 percent, with most of
the decline during the conversion from rail to bus. |
|
Holding Company Dissolution Act
Transit systems in Atlanta, Milwaukee, Portland (Oregon),
Pittsburgh, Tampa, and Washington were part of utility companies that also sold
electric power. They were ordered by the federal government to dispose of either
their electric power or transit business. It was deemed illegal for a utility
company to provide both power and electric transit services.
During the Great Depression, it was not
possible for the companies to sell their transit properties. Milwaukee spun its
transit system off from the power part of the business by sending new shares of
stock to the stockholders, but the other systems waited until profits from World
War II gasoline rationing put enough cash in transit coffers to attract buyers.
In Atlanta, as the system was converted to bus, ridership fell despite excellent
management, but plans were begun for rail rapid transit (Atlanta will be
reviewed further in the bus-to-rail portion of this analysis).
Milwaukee
In Milwaukee, a consultant found that the substitution of buses
for rail service increased ridership 100 percent from 1938 to 1943. Public
review of the report cited gasoline rationing as the prime reason for this great
increase, and a comparison with Pittsburgh disclosed that ridership gained even
more there, with no rail-to-bus substitutions (13). A consultant
suggested that the Wells Street line might be studied for rail modernization,
but the study was never made, despite the large amount of new rail installed in
1950. Ridership in Milwaukee is now 70 percent below its post-WWII peak.
Portland
In Portland, as post-WWII conversion of rail lines to bus
accelerated, ridership dropped 14 percent per year—one of the sharpest declines
in the nation. The exception was ridership on the suburban rail lines before
conversion. After the less-severe decline that occurred when Saturday was phased
out as a workday, ridership began to grow again, paralleling the experience in
Shaker Heights, Ohio. Then the highway department closed the bridge into
downtown for repairs, truncating rail service short of downtown and requiring a
shuttle bus to complete the trip. This depressed ridership severely (although
not as severely as Portland’s bus ridership) until a 33 percent fare increase
was applied. Service was then discontinued in defiance of the Public Utility
Commission. An appeal to the court was fruitless because the highway department
had rebuilt the bridge without rails. Bus ridership continued its sharp decline,
and by 1958, ridership was down 74 percent
(14).
Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh transit system was captured by stock speculators
when the utility company had to sell. The speculators disbursed the
modernization fund as dividends and left management to operate as best they
could. Ridership did not begin to decline until a 20 percent fare increase in
1948, but an annual series of strikes in the 1950s rapidly dissipated ridership.
A public authority condemned the property in 1963 and began a rapid rail
abandonment program. With public subsidies, no further service curtailments were
made, and ridership stabilized at 69 percent below the Great Depression level.
In recent years, two new exclusive busways have been built to
speed bus travel. The South Busway opened first, parallel to one of the
remaining rail lines. Ridership grew slightly during the 1980-1981 energy
crisis, but by 1984, it had fallen off to a level lower than before the busway
opened. The second busway, to the east, was completed in 1983. It provided a new
EBA bus line, making ridership comparisons difficult, but the system load factor
declined from 12 to 10.5 passenger-miles per bus mile despite the use of
articulated buses on EBA. The promise of 80,000 passengers per weekday never
materialized. Ridership is between 21,000 and 29,000 each weekday in the most
densely populated area of the city and its suburbs (15).
Two rail corridors were retained in Pittsburgh, with a plan to
convert one of them into an automated guideway, but opposition blocked this
federally funded effort. The two rail lines continued to operate, with patronage
increasing from 20,000 per weekday after World War II to 24,000 by the time that
the rail system was disrupted for reconstruction. This trend was diametrically
opposed to the rest of the system. An alternatives analysis determined that
light rail service should be provided. A new downtown subway replaced street
operation. Ridership increased to nearly 30,000 each weekday, with little change
in travel time. Data compiled by Southwestern Pennsylvania Regional Planning
Commission reveal that rail ridership 10 miles from downtown is at the rate of
39 annual rides per capita. Bus travel is at the rate of 10 in the South Hills
and 19 in the north, where there is no rail service. The rail rate is the same
as in the Philadelphia area.
Tampa
The Tampa Electric Company operated 100 rail cars in that city
until the Tampa Utility Board refused to allow the transit property in the rate
base, forcing it out of business. National City Lines, which also operated 37
buses in Tampa, took over the entire operation after the rail system’s demise.
Despite rapid population growth, ridership has fallen 60 percent with an all-bus
system. Per capita ridership has fallen 81 percent (16).
Washington
The Capital Transit Company in Washington was forced to sell to
scrap dealer Louis Wolfson after wartime profits made the sale attractive.
Because of the order to sell, the company had not been willing to make the heavy
rail investment that was essential to relieving congestion of its cars in front
of the White House. Accordingly, it sought to replace Benning number 10–12 line
rail cars with buses on different streets to relieve rail congestion. Public
protests were overcome, and the change was made. Ridership began a 25-yr
decline, forcing Wolfson to severely truncate Maryland service to keep solvent.
This so angered the public that Congress revoked the franchise during a 2-month
strike, forever banning rail cars from the city streets.
For a time, no responsible new operator
could be found, but eventually the owner of Trans-Caribbean Airlines came
forward with $600,000 down and the promise to pay $2.5 million cash in two
weeks, as well as assuming the outstanding debt. He used the company's own cash
to buy the system. This buyer then sought relief from the rail abandonment
order, but to no avail. In 1963, rail service was terminated, and ridership
continued to decline until the low point in 1973, 67 percent below 1948 levels,
despite the opening of the Shirley busway to suburban Virginia. In 1976, rapid
rail transit came to the area, and ridership has doubled, as will be reviewed
further along in this analysis.
Political Interference
Several rail transit systems were forced out of business by
overpowering political pressure.
Chicago
In Chicago, a public authority took over the nation’s largest
street railway in 1947 and immediately began to cut back on rapid transit branch
lines and eliminate all street railway lines, despite the presence of 600
brand-new cars. Fares escalated as fast as ridership declined. From 1948 to
1970, the decline was 63 percent. During the same period, rail rapid transit
ridership increased 7 percent (17).
A comparison of 1960 data with 1970 data reveals a decline of 30
percent on the new city bus system, a suburban bus decline of 36 percent, a
rapid transit decline of 6 percent, and a satellite bus decline of 71 percent.
Commuter rail ridership increased 7 percent (18). In Chicago’s western
suburbs, the Chicago, Aurora & Elgin Railway was forced to eliminate its direct
service into Chicago’s Loop so that construction of I-90 would be simplified.
Commuters were required to transfer in Forest Park to the Chicago elevated
railway on street trackage through the construction zone. Suburban ridership
dropped 50 percent, half due to the forced transfer and one fourth each due to
slower trip time and higher fares. Without the higher through trip revenue, the
railway could not cover its expenses, and it had to shut down in 1957.
Leyden Motor Coach moved in to provide the service but was unable
to attract sufficient patronage to support a bus line. In 5 yr, ridership of 7
million annually was completely eliminated
(19).
Montreal
The Montreal Tramways Company, the largest transit system in
Canada, was taken over by the city for the express purpose of eliminating the
company's 994 rail cars. The resultant loss of ridership and profitability
reduced Montreal to the second largest transit system in Canada, but ridership
did not fall as sharply as it did in the United States under similar conditions.
In 1967, a new subway system was opened and attracted high ridership, but not as
high as that of Toronto’s more rail-oriented system. Annual per capita transit
revenue is $63 (Canadian dollars) in Montreal, and $116 in Toronto, where fares
cover 68 percent of operating costs. In Montreal, the coverage is only 46
percent. The transit modal split downtown is 55 percent in Montreal and 70
percent in Toronto, with 54 percent of the passengers on rail cars. Montreal is
59 percent bus. Ridership in Toronto continues to increase (20).
Cincinnati
After World War II, the Cincinnati Street Railway modernized its
system with new rail cars and infrastructure, as directed by the city. The next
City Council reversed the policy by ordering removal of all rail service
(21). The financial losses from the abandonment of nearly new rail
facilities forced frequent fare increases on the riders, until it became the
first major city to have a 55-cent fare. The ridership decreased 88 percent
during 40 yr.
Detroit
Detroit had eliminated all electric railway service by 1956, along
with much of the ridership. The General Manager’s report in 1957 promised that
“This was certainly a major step in the program of rehabilitating Detroit’s
transit system, making it possible to continue making improvements in transit
service by expanding express operations via Detroit’s growing expressway
[freeway] system.”
The rail cars that were replaced were relatively new, fast, and
profitable, with fares covering 148 percent of operating expense. Bus revenues
at the time were only 107 percent of operating expense and declining. The ratio
is now only 30 percent, despite one of the nation's first $1.00 base fares.
Ridership has declined 88 percent since 1947
(22). With the loss of its transit riders, the city has lost its last major
downtown department store. Recently, a new elevated rail loop has been built
downtown, but it provides little home-to-work service. It was built to connect
with a light rail line that has not been funded.
Dallas
The Dallas Railway & Terminal Company began a rail modernization
program after World War II, when ridership was 91 million (in 1948). The company
was forced to agree to eliminate all rail lines as a condition of approval for a
needed fare increase. With only two major rail lines remaining in 1954,
ridership was down to 73.5 million. By 1957, all rail lines were gone, along
with 52 percent of the system’s ridership in a growing area
(23). By 1981, revenue passengers (linked trips) were down to 29 million, an
overall loss of 59 percent. The decline in riding habit was 89 percent.
Buffalo
In Buffalo, a similar agreement between the transit company and
the city mandated the elimination of rail service, which was not modern. The
company boasted that “Buffalo leads all cities of a half million or more in
progress toward complete bus substitution. Nearly 70 percent of all IRC
passengers are served by bus.” Apparently, the bus service was not very good.
Ridership began to decline in 1944, before the end of gasoline rationing, just
as happened in Detroit. When war restrictions on fuel were lifted, all rail
service was abandoned, and the company soon went bankrupt.
It was reorganized as the Niagara Frontier Transit Co. and was
ably managed by Roswell Thoma for several years, but the decline in ridership
slowed only briefly. By the time that light rail transit was restored to Main
Street, system ridership had declined 82 percent from the 1944 peak
(24). In fairness, however, it must be noted that key employers were lost to
the city during this period, causing a marked decline in population.
Eastern Pennsylvania
Rail service to Reading, Pottstown, and Pottsville, Pennsylvania,
was ordered to shut down by the state Department of Transportation in 1980, in
outright violation of the Public Utility Law. Capitol Bus Company (Trailways)
was then operating five round trips, in direct competition with seven rail round
trips out of Philadelphia. Bus and rail combined served 1,800 weekday passengers
at that time. The bus service was expanded 40 percent to cover loss of the
trains, but there was no need to do so. Only 200 weekday bus passengers remain
on the route, a loss of 89 percent over three years. The local buses are 20
minutes slower than the trains, and express buses bypass local stations.
Considerable loss therefore might be expected, but nothing like 89 percent. This
severe loss parallels an earlier loss in the nearby Allentown corridor.
Company Policy
Eastern Pennsylvania
In 1951, Lehigh Valley Transit Co. abandoned its hourly electric
railway service between Allentown and Philadelphia’s western suburbs. It
continued its motorbus pool service in coordination with Reading Transportation
Co., providing eight round trips between Allentown and downtown Philadelphia.
Reading Railway also provided six round trip trains that made local stops. The
electric railway was the only one serving Norristown en route, but at a time
penalty, plus a transfer to reach the center of the city. No meaningful bus
service replaced the hourly rail service. Extra sections were added to any
existing bus trips that required them-but few did. Rail passengers just
disappeared. Total travel by transit in the corridor declined from 1,600 per
weekday with two rail lines and one bus line to 1,000 without the electric
railway, then down to 240 after the state Department of Transportation ordered
discontinuance of all rail service. This is an overall decline of 87 percent
(25).
West of Philadelphia, one of the last privately owned transit
companies, the Philadelphia Suburban Transportation Company, operated suburban
rail and bus service at profit. Two of their rail lines had been converted to
bus in 1954. Both were single track. One was on the side of a state highway for
18 mi, and the other was near the main line of the Pennsylvania Railroad, which
provided direct service to Philadelphia. As of 1954, the Company had lost no
passengers (net) to the growing “automania,” but the state highway department
and the federal income tax provided strong incentives for the company to divest
itself of its rail transit lines. The highway department wanted to use the
longer line for land on which to widen its highway, which had once been a
company-owned toll road.
The transit company planned new air-conditioned buses on the
improved highway. Rail cars had to run in trains at peak hours to cope with the
single track, so smaller buses could offer more frequent service. Very slight
ridership gains resulted from this bus substitution, but only at first. The
improved highway and suburban growth attracted too much automobile traffic,
congesting bus movement. In an attempt to retain riders, buses were extended
into Philadelphia to avoid the subway transfer at 69th Street, but riders did
not prefer the “one ride.” The service was withdrawn after a 2-year effort.
The other 4-mile line was a branch of the Norristown High Speed
Line (Philadelphia and Western Railway), which provided local service every 20
minutes in coordination with express service to Norristown. The Norristown line
got the 20-minute local service, except in rush hours. The Strafford branch was
sold to the highway department for a US-30 bypass, against the company
attorney’s advice. An abutting property owner discovered his family’s
reversionary easement and took possession, so the transit company had to refund
the sale price. At the same time, the bus substitution was not holding
ridership: many bus trips ran nearly empty. Service had to be cut back, losing
more riders. Eventually, only three rush-hour trips were left, and now these are
gone. The story closely parallels the Chicago suburban experience.
In 1967, the company tried again, abandoning its Ardmore rail line
on a median in Highway 3 and on private right-of-way, a total of 5 mi. Not a
single favorable public witness appeared at extended public hearings, other than
company officials, but the Public Utilities Commission determined that only the
company was competent to determine the matter (26).
It had been shown that buses did not have the capacity of rail cars and that
traffic congestion would impede buses, adding to bus costs and degrading service
quality. The company countered with an offer to build America's first exclusive
busway. It did. Again, a portion of the property was sold to the highway
department, and crossing gates were provided for the busway. The rail line had
none.
The opponents of this change were prophetic. Ridership fell 15
percent with the busway, despite more costly service. The crossing gates did not
work well with rubber-tired vehicles. Neighborhood youths found the busway a
good drag strip. No one beneflited except the company, which received an income
tax refund for its rail abandonment and its sale of the entire system to a
public authority for nearly twice its appraised value.
In 1956, John McCain, president of the company, promised to
eliminate all rail operation before he retired. Since then, two remaining light
rail lines have been improved with new cars, and the Norristown line is now
having its 55- to 63-year-old cars replaced. Bus ridership keeps evaporating.
Cleveland
The city of Cleveland bought its transit system in 1942 and
undertook a bus substitution program after World War II. By 1948, ridership was
falling 14 percent per year, while ridership in neighboring Pittsburgh, with a
similar economy, remained stable (27).
Cleveland’s two independent light rail lines did not fare
similarly. Cleveland undertook to build its own rail transit line, sharing the
downtown portion of the light rail right-of-way. The system opened to travel in
1956 and extended westward until it reached the airport a few years later (see
Figure 4). |
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At the same time, Cleveland replaced its city-owned street
railways with buses, many express, for which the general manager was recognized
nationally by the Urban Land Institute. Despite the improved bus service, the
decline in patronage did not stop. By 1986, the Greater Cleveland Regional
Transit Authority, excluding the two light rail lines, had lost 72 percent of
its riders since 1948. The two unchanged light rail lines had lost only 25
percent, despite the loss of the Saturday business day and despite the distant
competition of the newer city rapid transit line, which has fared badly after an
auspicious start.
UPTREND
Ottawa, Canada
Not all transit systems have suffered as greatly as those
described. The most successful bus system on the continent is the OC Transpo in
Ottawa, Canada, the nation’s capital. By restricting free automobile parking, by
practicing high-minded zoning controls, and by offering user-side subsidies to
bus riders, OC Transpo has developed the highest all-bus riding habit on the
continent. Aided by a population increase of 400 percent, transit ridership has
increased 241 percent. This represents a loss of market share but is by far the
best results of any major bus system.
To assist in coping with rapid growth and to update the transit
system, Ottawa has built an expanding exclusive bus-way at a cost of several
hundred million Canadian dollars. This project has not had the desired effect.
Ridership that had been growing because of the transit incentives has begun to
decline as the busway was phased in. Ridership is down about 25 percent, and
rush hour local fares are up to $1.60 (ridership data at this fare are not yet
available) (28).
Atlanta
The loss of ridership in Atlanta has been described, but the
introduction of rail rapid transit service has changed that situation. Atlanta
now has two rapid transit lines, one extending north from the airport through
Five Points (the CBD) to the northern suburbs, and the other extending west from
east of Decatur to Hightower Road, a mile short of Atlanta's beltway, I-285.
Markedly reduced fares have escalated back to typical rates, and ridership has
grown with rail extensions. It is now 32 percent higher than it was 40 years
ago, when nationwide ridership was at its peak, and has grown approximately 150
percent from the all-bus low in 1971. The reduced travel time made possible by
rapid transit accounts for less than 50 percent of this growth. Rail
rapid transit accounts for growth of more than 100 percent, a figure similar to
the growth in the Lindenwold, N. J., corridor (discussed later).
Boston
Boston converted all of its local street railways to bus operation
a generation ago, but the backbone of its service is a system of rail lines,
including commuter, light rail, and rapid transit. As the number of rail cars
was cut in half, ridership fell 66 percent over 40 years. The electric rail
lines did not extend very far into the suburbs until recent years.
In contrast to this general trend, light rail transit was extended
through the suburbs of Brooklme and Newton to belt highway 128 in 1959.
Originally a steam railroad, this system carried 3,140 passengers before it was
converted to light rail. During the conversion, Middlesex and Boston buses
attracted approximately 2,500 weekday riders with all-day service, a figure 20
percent less than the ridership for railroad’s primarily rush hour service.
After light rail service began, 26,000 weekday passengers
appeared. This 940 percent increase over shuttle bus volume and 728 percent
increase over direct desultory railroad service threw schedules into disarray.
Faster travel time and subway distribution in the hub accounted for a healthy
portion of the increase, but rail transit was the primary attraction in this
high-income, automobile-dominated area (29).
Toronto
Toronto is one of the very few cities to enjoy more transit riders
in 1988 than in 1948. The urban area has grown markedly, but the city of Toronto
has not. Absolute ridership has grown 46 percent during the past 40 years while
other systems declined. The number of rail cars has increased with time and now
exceeds 1,000. Streetcars continue to serve where subways have not replaced
them. More than 50 percent of the area’s transit work is done by rail. Since
1967, a new regional (commuter) rail system has been added, and new rail lines
are being added as ridership continues to grow
(30).
San Francisco
At the end of World War II, National City Lines acquired the Key
System transit lines on San Francisco’s East Bay and eliminated all electric
transit operation. Ridership fell faster and farther than in any other major
area, despite the express buses that replaced transbay rail service. In the city
of San Francisco itself, the Municipal Railway held its patronage better than
did rail systems in most other cities. It retained electric transit operation,
including streetcars on Market Street.
The people of the East Bay created a new transit district in an
attempt to reverse their transit decline. A great improvement was made with
public funds, but the modal split remained low. The citizens of the larger
region then decided, by ballot, to restore rail transit to the East Bay and west
to Daly City, with a new tunnel under the bay. The Bay Area Rapid Transit
District began restored rail service in 1972. By 1975 “some 44 percent of BART
patrons came from buses, over 20 percent was added to the number of daily trips
in the . . . Bay area, and total non-BART trips by transit also increased”
(31). Since 1975, BART travel has increased markedly, reaching a total of
210,000 weekday passengers. Travel on the light rail lines in San Francisco,
partially parallel to BART, has increased 50 percent at the same time. In
recognition of this trend, the area has funded seven rail extensions.
New Jersey
Northern New Jersey was once connected to New York City by ferry
boats, two subways, and a railroad. When the highway tunnels and bridges were
opened to automobile and bus travel (1926-1936), some rail travel was diverted,
particularly in the off-peak periods. New Jersey then had the highest railroad
taxes in the nation, which, with the Great Depression, forced a cutback of
unsubsidized rail service. Several lines were totally discontinued, but bus
ridership also declined. To improve bus service, the Port Authority of New
Jersey and New York set aside an exclusive counterflow lane in the Lincoln
tunnel with a 100-bay bus terminal in Times Square. Commuters have not been
pleased with the congested operation.
Bergen County, New Jersey, with a million people, is across the
Hudson River from the Bronx, New York. Many residents commute to Manhattan. One
third pay high tolls and parking fees to drive in. Only 21 percent can use rail
service because most of it has been eliminated. Buses serve 46 percent.
Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties in New Jersey still have much
of their rail service. It does not cross the river, however, and the connecting
ferries have been eliminated. Each rail commuter must pay an additional $2 per
round trip to cross the river on a crowded subway or on a bus. Despite this, 47
percent of the travel is by rail and 34 percent is by direct bus, leaving only
19 percent to automobile travel. The bus share dropped 26 percent as more rail
service became available, and the automobile share dropped 42 percent (Figure
2).
From the North Jersey Coast, with some direct rail service, the
rail share is 46 percent, and buses on the New Jersey Turnpike attract 41
percent. The automobile captures only 13 percent. From Union and Somerset
counties (in the same rail corridor but without direct rail service), 64 percent
of the commuters chose rail, 26 percent bus, and 10 percent automobile. On the
spine of the Northeast Corridor, with all-direct train service to Manhattan, 63
percent of the commuters chose rail, 29 percent Turnpike buses, and 8 percent
automobiles (32).
It appears that the larger the share of bus travel becomes, the larger the
share of automobile travel as well. Rail use in this area has increased 40
percent since 1983, suggesting higher rail shares than reported here.
In southern New Jersey, Port Authority Transit has connected
Lindenwold, New Jersey, with Philadelphia by rapid rail transit since 1969. Bus
ridership in the area had been declining for years as the suburban population
grew. With rail service added, ridership increased 115 percent. Bus service was
continued but has gradually been reduced for lack of passengers. The PATCO rail
line covered all operating and maintenance costs from fares at first, but the
inflationary spiral has reduced the revenue-to-cost ratio to 74 percent in 1987.
The bus ratio in this area is about half that figure.
Washington
In 1973, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority began
serving the area’s 123 million annual bus riders. In 1988, with more than half
of the patronage back on rails, ridership had grown to 250 million, up 103
percent. Revenue is up 320 percent on fare increases of 67 percent. Rail
passenger-miles exceed bus passenger-miles by 30 percent (transfer passengers
not included).
About the time of the opening of the Lindenwold, New Jersey, line,
the Shirley Busway opened on I-395, south out of Washington, for the same
purpose over a similar distance. It was an immediate success. The Springfield,
Virginia, area supported only three bus round trips per weekday before the
busway. Now Springfield has service every few minutes in rush hour, with hourly
service midday. Although the population of this region is similar to that of the
Lindenwold line corridor, ridership is not. The riding habit in the Springfield
area is 17 annual rides per capita, adjusted to 8.5 mi from the city center. The
Lindenwold habit is 55. Ridership on the busway has declined 42 percent since
the 1980 energy crisis as fares have increased and as car pools have been
allowed on the busway (Figure 5). |
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In 1986, Metrorail opened an 11-mi line from Rosslyn to Vienna,
Virginia, serving a corridor similar to the Shirley Busway but on I-66. With 2
years of travel development, Metrorail has attracted a riding habit of 51
(adjusted to 8.5 miles out), which is triple the bus rate. Rail running time is
22 minutes with 7 stations, whereas busway time is 20 minutes without stops.
Prerail express bus service in the 1-66 corridor could not support
any off-peak express service. The trains attract 500 passengers per hour from
the outer stations. Local buses continue to parallel the rail line without much
change. The rail revenue-to-cost ratio increased to 75 percent with the
extension, with no change in fares. The bus revenue-to-cost ratio in Fairfax
County was 24 percent before rail operation (33).
San Diego
San Diego resumed rail transit service in 1981 with a 16-mi line
parallel to Bus Route 32, the area’s busiest. The city had lost ridership
rapidly when the original street railway was converted to bus after World War
II. Despite rapid population growth and a stabilized bus system, ridership had
fallen 53 percent before rail transit was resumed in 1981.
The Route 32 and Route 100 buses in the South Bay corridor served
12,000 weekday passengers. With rail service, Route 32 was truncated short of
center city, and Bus Route 100 on I-5 was discontinued. The 15-min. headways
were unchanged during the period, but rail running time is only 40 min, compared
with 75 min by bus. Initially, ridership was unchanged: 10,000 on the trains and
2,500 remaining on Bus Route 32. Rail ridership has been growing ever since,
however, with 26,000 weekday passengers in 1988. A second short rail line has
been added, bringing rail ridership to 29,500. The single-line increase was 160
percent in 7 yr, even though rail fares are higher than bus fares (except in
center city). In the peak hour, at the maximum load point, ridership has
increased 238 percent (Figure 6). Travel time savings could account for an
increase of 92 percent. The balance of the increase may be attributable to rail
service. The rail revenue-to-cost ratio is the best in the industry, and the
cost per passenger-mile is the lowest (34). |
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Buffalo
When Buffalo's light rail line was completed, it attracted 30,000
school-day riders in the Main Street corridor. This is an 82 percent increase
over previous bus service, some of which still operates. Faster travel time may
account for 31 percent of the increase, and 3,000 rail trips are carried free
downtown. About 34 percent of the ridership increase may be attributed to rail
service. The chairman of the transit authority, Raymond Gallagher, stated that
“What is gratifying is the increase in ridership is not due to bus riders
transferring to the rail system, but this new ridership increase is due to
first-time riders who have never boarded a bus to get downtown” (35). The
business community reported a 20 percent increase in downtown commercial
activity as a result of rail service on this one line. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,
and Portland, Oregon, reported similar results.
Portland
A 15-mi eastern radial rail line opened in Portland in 1986.
Declining ridership on the all-bus system became increasing ridership on the new
combination system. The cost per passenger declined. Light rail is now carrying
11 percent of the passengers on 4 percent of the service. The cost per rail
passenger-mile is only 20 cents, compared to 40 cents by bus (36).
The synergistic effect has now increased the number of bus riders.
Sacramento
With 15 million linked transit trips in 1986, the transit system
of Sacramento, California, is one of the smallest to restore rail transit. One
new light rail line, operating as two radials from downtown, is carrying 3.7
million annual passengers, 24 percent of the system's ridership on 13 percent of
the vehicles. One fourth of the riders are new to transit, and many use suburban
park-and-ride facilities. Service is too new to compile sufficient data, but 81
rail employees are producing 14 percent more passenger-miles per employee than
bus employees (37).
CONCLUSIONS
In most cities served by buses exclusively, transit riding has
declined 75 percent over the past 40 years. Exclusive busways have not made much
difference absolutely, but they have helped relatively. In 11 areas with updated
rail transit facilities, ridership has increased markedly, often by more than
100 percent. In two of these areas, the transit systems are attracting more
ridership than they did when gasoline and tires were rationed. It appears that
rail transit makes a great difference in ridership attraction, with attendant
benefits (38).
Because transit use is a function of travel time, fare, frequency
of service, population, and density, increased transit use can not be attributed
to rail transit when these other factors are improved. When these service
conditions are equal, it is evident that rail transit is likely to attract from
34 percent to 43 percent more riders than will equivalent bus service. The data
do not provide explanations for this phenomenon, but other studies and reports
suggest that the clearly identifiable rail route; delineated stops that are
often protected; more stable, safer, and more comfortable vehicles; freedom from
fumes and excessive noise; and more generous vehicle dimensions may all be
factors.
Those engaged in alternatives analyses and similar studies would
be well advised to consider these differential factors before making service
recommendations or traffic relief assumptions. Future problems with air
pollution, congestion, and funding may all be seriously affected by these
considerations.
REFERENCES
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1988, p.52; Newsweek. Aug.29, 1988.
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World Almanac. Newspaper Enterprise Association, New York,
1984, p.147.
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Metrorail Round 4 Ridership. Metropolitan Washington Council of
Governments, Washington, D.C., 1988.
4. R. H. Pratt.
Virginia Railway Express Report.
Northern Virginia Transportation Commission, Arlington, Va., 1988.
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Philadelphia, Pa.,
1964, p.87.
6.
Penn-Jersey Reports 1: State of the Region. Philadelphia, Pa.,
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Mass Transit, Sept.1988.
21.
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Annual Report. Department of Street Railways, Detroit, Mich.,
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24.
Annual Report. International Railway Company, Buffalo, N.Y.,
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25.
Quarterly Reports on Railroad Ridership. Southeastern Pennsylvania
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26. Testimony Before the
Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission. Philadelphia Suburban Transportation
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27.
Annual Report. Cleveland Transportation System, Cleveland, Ohio,
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29.
Annual Report. Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Boston, Mass., 1959.
30.
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31. B. Pushkarev.
Urban Rail in America. Indiana University Press, Bloomington, md., 1982.
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Jurow. Making the Tough Choices: Selecting Transit Projects to Meet New
Jersey's Growth. Presented at the 66th Annual Meeting of the Transportation
Research Board, Washington, D.C., 1987.
33.
Ridership Reports. Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority,
Washington, D.C., 1973-1988; Population Reports. Fairfax County Planning
Commission, Fairfax, Va., 1983.
34.
SANDAG Report. San Diego Association of Governments, San Diego, Calif.,
November 1984.
35.
Passenger Transport. American Public Transit Association, Washington, D.C.,
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36.
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37.
Sacramento Light Rail Overview: Regional Transit. Sacramento, Calif.,
September 5, 1987.
38. R. Frank. In The
Sunday Bulletin. Philadelphia, Pa., July 31,
1966.
Publication of this paper sponsored
by Committee on Rail Transit Systems.
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